Backtesting is the backbone of quantitative research. It’s where ideas become data-driven strategies and where many good ideas are filtered out. Interviewers will test your understanding of not just how to run a backtest, but also how to diagnose bias, evaluate performance, and ensure robustness.

🧠 1. What is backtesting and why is it important?

Definition:
Backtesting is the process of applying a trading strategy to historical data to simulate how it would have performed.

Purpose:

  • Validate whether a signal or model has predictive power
  • Estimate returns, risk, and performance stability
  • Diagnose overfitting, assumptions, and hidden biases

A backtest is only useful if it accurately reflects realistic trading conditions — otherwise, it’s just curve-fitting to historical noise.

📉 2. What is slippage and why does it matter?

Definition:
Slippage is the difference between the expected execution price and the actual execution price.

Sources of slippage:

  • Bid–ask spread
  • Market impact
  • Latency and order queue positioning
  • Rapid price moves after a signal triggers

Modeling slippage:
Simplified: \(\text{Slippage Cost} = \text{Trade Size} \times (\text{Market Price} - \text{Execution Price})\)

In more advanced setups:

  • Kyle’s lambda model for impact
  • Almgren–Chriss optimal execution framework
  • Volume-based impact models

Interview Tip: Always emphasize that ignoring slippage leads to overly optimistic backtest results.

🔁 3. What is turnover and how is it computed?

Definition:
Turnover measures how frequently a portfolio’s positions change, representing trading intensity (and thus cost).

Formula: \(\text{Turnover}_t = \frac{1}{2} \sum_i |w_{i,t} - w_{i,t-1}|\)

Interpretation:

  • High turnover → more trading, more transaction costs
  • Low turnover → more stable portfolio, lower cost

Use cases:

  • Constraint in portfolio optimization
  • Metric for execution cost modeling
  • Stability diagnostic for factor strategies

🧬 4. What is alpha decay?

Definition:
Alpha decay measures how quickly a signal loses predictive power after it is discovered or after it is generated.

Types:

  1. Post-discovery decay: Alpha degrades as more capital crowds the signal.
  2. Signal timing decay: Alpha weakens as execution is delayed.

Empirical Example:
A signal with strong 1-day predictive return may decay to zero by day 3.

Quantifying alpha decay:
Compute IC or return spread over different holding periods: \(\text{Decay}(k) = IC_{t+k}\)

Strategies with slow decay → easier to execute, less sensitive to slippage.
Fast-decay signals → require low latency and aggressive execution.

📊 5. What are the key performance metrics in backtesting?

Metric Meaning Purpose
CAGR Annualized return Long-term growth
Volatility Std. dev. of returns Measures risk
Sharpe Ratio Excess return per unit risk Risk-adjusted performance
Sortino Ratio Downside-only version of Sharpe Asymmetric payoff strategies
Max Drawdown Worst peak-to-trough drop Tail risk & resilience
Calmar Ratio CAGR / Drawdown Drawdown-aware performance
Hit Rate % of positive-return trades Stability
Win/Loss Ratio Avg win ÷ avg loss Trade distribution

⚙️ 8. What is realistic transaction cost modeling?

Good backtests include:

  • Bid–ask spread cost
  • Market impact proportional to trade size
  • Variable commissions (based on region/asset)
  • Short borrow fees
  • Slippage models based on volatility & volume

A common simplified model: \(\text{Cost} = a \cdot |w_t - w_{t-1}| + b \cdot (|w_t - w_{t-1}|)^2\) where (a) models linear costs and (b) models market impact.

🚀 9. What makes a backtest “too good to be true”?

Red flags:

  • Extremely high Sharpe (>3 in equities)
  • Low drawdown with high return (unrealistic)
  • Zero or near-zero turnover
  • No parameter sensitivity
  • Smooth PnL curve with no volatility
  • Gains persisting across all regimes without explanation

Interviewers may ask you to critique a “perfect” backtest. Mention:

“It likely suffers from overfitting, unrealistic assumptions, or hidden data leakage.”